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Lululemon Shares Are Plummeting On Less-Than-Stellar Outlook (LULU)

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lululemon yoga

Shares of yoga apparel retailer Lululemon are down more than 10% in premarket trading.

Q3 sales increased 31% to $230.2 million. Comparable stores sales jumped 16%.

EPS was 27 cents, which beat expectations by 2 cents.

"We are proud to have produced another very healthy quarter of financial results," said CEO Christine Day. "We are set to finish 2011 with a stronger brand, a stronger organization and we remain focused on our strategic growth opportunities."

However, Q4 guidance was disappointing.  Management expects $327 million to $332 million in sales on low double-digit comparable store sales growth.  EPS guidance of 40 to 42 cents compares to Wall Street's estimate of 42 cents.

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Goldman Goes Bullish On Two Fast-Growing, Momentum Darlings (CMG, LULU)

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Lululemon Yoga

This morning, Goldman Sachs has put both Lululemon and Chipotle on its "Conviction Buy List."

Both of these stocks have, at times, been pretty big, fast-growing momentum darlings.

First on Lululemon, says analyst Michelle Tan:

We add Buy-rated LULU to the Americas Conviction List with a $64, six-month price target (37% upside), as (1) we believe LULU still offers one of the most compelling growth stories in retail, with continuing brand momentum (evidenced by strong yoy growth in Google trends this Holiday), sector-leading annual sales growth of over 30%, and substantial runway still ahead, and (2) we believe controversy surrounding implications of higher inventory has created an more attractive entry point, with upside to consensus EPS and to LULU’s current P/E, which at 29X our 2012E EPS reflect a sharp discount to LULU’s five-year average (38X) and PEs of best-in-class growth peers (up to 40X).

And on Chipotle, the case from Michael Kelter:

We add CMG to the Americas Conviction List as we expect 35-40% EPS growth in 2012; our $9.39 2012E EPS is well ahead of the $8.63 consensus. We expect upside to both SSS and profit margins, as lower food costs work their way through the P&L and fixed cost leverage continues. We see a low likelihood that multiple compression will serve as an offset given (1) CMG’s early stage in its growth life cycle at 1,200 units out of a 3,000-4,000 unit potential, (2) the magnitude of potential EPS upside, and (3) the historical precedent set by prior “hyper-growth” restaurant stocks.

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Lululemon and Tiffany Just Came Out With Radically Different Outlooks For Their Businesses (TIF, LULU)

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Fashion Week Yoga

Two specialty retailers announced guidance changes this morning following the tally of holiday sales.

Lululemon Athletica revised its fourth quarter earnings higher, to a range of $0.47 to $0.49 a share. That compares to $0.40 set earlier in the year. Comparable-store sales are forecast to grow in the low-to-mid twenties percentage range.

“Our work throughout the year building our inventory position is driving our success in the fourth quarter," Christine Day, Lululemon’s CEO says. "Guests have responded exceptionally well to the robust assortment and bright color palette for holiday, and momentum continues with the new spring product offerings.”

Shares in the yoga clothier are up 9% in pre-market trading.

Tiffany & Co., which saw sales surge 19% in the Asia-Pacific, said that a cooling momentum in the Americas would hit its results.

“After achieving very strong and better-than-expected sales and earnings growth in the first three quarters of 2011, sales weakened markedly in the United States and Europe during the holiday season, reflecting restrained spending by consumers for fine jewelry.

For the two month holiday period, global sales grew 7% to $952 million. Same-store sales at the retailer, or sales at stores open at least a year, increased 4%.

The company now estimates that earnings per share will grow 23% to 25% for the year for a range of $3.60 to $3.65. That is down ten cents from earlier expectation for $3.70 to $3.80 per share.

Tiffany will provide further 2012 guidance in March.

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Lululemon Sold A Billion Dollars Worth Of Yoga Gear Last Year, But Guidance Is Weak (LULU)

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lululemon yoga

Yoga pants maker Lululemon reported Q4 EPS of $0.51, up from $0.38 a year ago.

Analysts were looking for $0.49.

Net sales surged 51.4 percent to $371.5 million, driven by 26 percent comparable store sales growth.

Analysts were expecting $362 million in sales.

Full year net sales jumped 40.6 percent to $1.0 billion.

"Reaching a billion dollars in revenue is clearly an important milestone that as a company we can all be very proud of," said CEO Christine Day.

However, management's guidance was a bit mixed.  The company expects to generate $265 million to $270 million in Q1 sales with at least 20 percent comparable store sales growth.  EPS is expected to come in at $0.28 to $0.29.

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How Lululemon Became A $10 Billion Yoga Empire

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lululemon yoga

Investors expected little from Lululemon when it began selling shares at $2 a pop in 2007.

The maker of Wunder Under pants and other yoga women's wear hardly seemed like a player in the competitive world of retail sportswear.

Five years later, Lululemon's stock has hit $76, and the company is valued at $10 billion — more than the clothing behemoth J.C. Penney.

Last week, Lululemon posted a quarterly profit of $74 million, reported sales growth for the twelfth straight quarter, and, fittingly, opened a Boston store with a yoga class and dance party for 500 neon-clad guests. Here, a guide to Lululemon's "secret sauce":

How is Lululemon different from other retailers? 
One key to its success is a "scarcity" model, in which its outlets keep only a limited supply of stock. Customers know that they have to buy an item right away if they want to get their hands on it, which "creates these fanatical shoppers," CEO Christine Day tells The Wall Street Journal. Lululemon also rarely offers sales, which means its customers buy everything at full price. Its yoga pants, for example, range from $75 to $128, while similar products can be found at the Gap at prices as low as $25.

Why do customers pony up for the more expensive stuff? 
Call it the Apple model. Day's strategy is to continually refine Lululemon's core products, which results in clothes that are "aesthetically pleasing, functional — and pricier," says Marina Strauss at Canada's The Globe and Mail. Day has pledged to keep improving the features and fabrics of Lululemon's clothes, even though that will bump up costs. The investment pays off by inspiring "fierce loyalty, with bloggers breathlessly documenting every product launch," says Allison Martell at Reuters

Are there flaws in Lululemon's strategy? 
Yes. The scarcity model forces the company to "walk a very fine line," says Abram Brown at Forbes, and Lululemon "teetered off its edge" last year. While sales were strong, they could have been even better if the company had kept "enough in the stores to meet demand." Also, Lululemon's stock price, at around $75, is probably "overpriced," says Johanna Bennet atBarron's. The company's performance has been "incredible," but it can't keep up this "breakneck growth." 

So it's heading for a fall? 
Not necessarily. The company is expanding its product line beyond yoga and women's wear. Overseas markets present a huge opportunity for further growth. And Lululemon has essentially established itself as the "Nike for women," which is invaluable, says Jim Cramer at The Street. People have doubted Lululemon before, and regretted it, says Bennet. "Last summer, we suggested avoiding the stock at $42.50…We were wrong — and how."

Sources: Barron'sThe Boston GlobeForbesThe Globe and Mail,ReutersThe StreetThe Wall Street Journal

 

This post originally appeared at The Week.

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'Lulu's Juice Is Still Worth The Squeeze'

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Yoga Lululemon

The big call of the day...

UBS analyst Roxanne Meyer is bullish on yoga-gear maker Lululemon.

Her note is titled "Lulu's Juice Is Still Worth The Squeeze."

Why the optimism?

Our Buy thesis on LULU is based on: 1) deep competitive advantages (inc. product innovation, scarcity model, grassroots marketing, management), 2) industry-leading growth which is still in early innings across channels and geographies, 3) strong comp momentum to minimize near- t.erm margin headwinds, and 4) though meaningful margin upside is limited, underappreciated margin divers in FY13/14.

As for the numbers:

We look for 30+% EPS growth over the next few yrs given: 1) its ability to ~triple its US base, 2) wide brand appeal given lifestyle focus, 3) product innovation, 4) increased inventories/product f.low, 4) the wide gap between US and Canada sales productivity (see analysis of closing the gap pgs 17-18), 5) potential to more than double ecommerce, and 6) international potential - could add $0.10-0.20 by ’16.

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How Lululemon Brainwashes Women Into Spending $98 On Sweatpants (LULU)

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yoga girls

It didn't take long for Lululemon Athletica to grow into a $10 billion yoga apparel empire

Its business concept —convincing consumers to buy $98 dollar yoga pants — has inspired a number of competitors, including Gap Inc.'s Athleta, which is now opening a slew of stores featuring Lululemon-style athletic attire. Its Old Navy brand is also offering its own line of slimming yoga pants.

Why has Lululemon been so successful? Put simply, it found a savvy way to exploit women's deepest insecurities.

A New York City yoga instructor recently confirmed this. "Women want to look good for other women before they want to look good for men," she told us. "Lululemon was the first place that provided workout clothes that women weren't embarrassed to be seen in, they could even grab dinner after yoga if they wanted to.''

Meaning that women will go to any length — even spending several hundred dollars on a workout ensemble — to impress their peers.

"Impressing men? That's easy,'' she says. "But impressing their friends in the studio is a lot harder."

Lululemon released a manifesto on its website that plays on this concept. If "Friends are more important then money," shouldn't we spend all of our money on yoga gear?

lululemon manifesto

NOW SEE: BRANDWASHED — Shocking Tricks Brands Use To Get Your Kids Hooked >

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Don't Be Surprised If Your Boss Shows Up To Work Sporting Lululemon's Latest Clothing Line (LULU)

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Lululemon

One of the hottest stocks on the market belongs to Lululemon.  The company has no debt, solid cash flow, EPS set to top $1.00 this year.

But what about Lululemon as hot clothing line?

According to a research note today from Bank of America Merrill Lynch's equities team, the yogawear plan to move into something they're calling "technical street."

We are working on getting photos, but here's what we know so far, according to BAML

  • The technical, sport-inspired clothing will be a substitute for "traditional apparel"
  • In a presentation for the analysts, management showed off a "synthetic men's blazer and stretch pant look"
  • This can be worn in both casual and work settings

Management also talked about new swim and surf lines.

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Another Bank Was Blown Away By Lululemon's New Strategy (LULU)

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lululemon yoga

Lululemon seems to have held a great analyst day. 

Yesterday Bank of America Merrill Lynch salivated over Lululemon's plan to expand into traditional apparel, swim and surf clothes. Today Jefferies equity analyst Taposh Bari jumps on the train:

The key takeaway, in our view, was a management team not feeling constrained by geography, gender, store count or product application. We also gained a better appreciation for the caliber of talent within the organization with many leaders coming from larger, more established companies.

Lululemon is a "brand without constraints" managed by "dreamers and doers."

Bari calls the Lululemon's expansion plans optimistic but notes its proven success in expanding to men's apparel, running and e-commerce.

See also: How Lululemon brainwashed women into spending $98 on sweatpants >

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12 Utterly Bizarre Facts About The Rise Of Lululemon, The Cult-Like Yoga Brand (LULU)

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Financially, Lululemon Athletica has gone from strength to strength in the last year. It reported 2011 revenues of $1 billion, up from $712 million the year before, for its trendy $98 yoga pants.

But that success came at a price. In January, founder Chip Wilson stepped aside and his duties were taken over by CEO Christine Day, after he generated a string of unfortunate headlines about his weird beliefs.

Those beliefs include favoring child labor, his disdain for the ability of the Japanese to speak English, a love of Ayn Rand, and his opinion that The Pill created a generation of divorce-shattered women now seeking empowerment through yoga.

Here's how it happened.

The founder is an Ayn Rand fan and the company takes its values from Atlas Shrugged.

Late last year, the company began printing the phrase "Who is John Galt?" on its shopping bags. Galt, of course, is the star of Rand's "objectivist" novel, "Atlas Shrugged," which argues that the naked pursuit of self-interest should be society's highest ambition. Founder Chip Wilson read the book when he was 18.



Wilson believes the birth control pill and smoking are responsible for high divorce rates—and the existence of Lululemon itself.

Here's what Wilson says of his company's origins:

"Women’s lives changed immediately [after the pill]. ... Men did not know how to relate to the new female. Thus came the era of divorces.

"With divorce and publicity around equality, women in the 1970′s/80′s found themselves operating as “Power Women.” The media convinced women that they could win at home and be a man’s equal in the business world. Women put in 12 hour work days, attempted to keep a clean and orderly house, and give their children all the love they had pre-divorce. What they gave up however was their social life, exercise, balance, and sleep.

"The 1980′s gave way to Power Women dressing like men in boardroom attire with big shoulder pads. They went to 3 martini lunches and smoked because this is what their “successful” fathers did in the business world.

"Breast cancer also came into prominence in the 1990’s. I suggest this was due to the number of cigarette-smoking Power Women who were on the pill (initial concentrations of hormones in the pill were very high) and taking on the stress previously left to men in the working world.

"Ultimately, Lululemon was formed because female education levels, breast cancer, yoga/athletics and the desire to dress feminine came together all at one time."



Wilson created the name 'Lululemon' because he thinks Japanese people can't say the letter 'L.'

He told Canada's National Post Business Magazine, "It's funny to watch them try and say it," when asked about his views on the Japanese pronunciation of the company's name.

In 2009, he wrote:

It was thought that a Japanese marketing firm would not try to create a North American sounding brand with the letter “L” because the sound does not exist in Japanese phonetics. By including an “L” in the name it was thought the Japanese consumer would find the name innately North American and authentic.

In essence, the name “lululemon” has no roots and means nothing other than it has 3 “L’s” in it.  Nothing more and nothing less.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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Lululemon's New 'Children/Orgasm' Ad Is Creeping Everyone Out (LULU)

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lululemon tote bag

Lululemon, the seller of $98 yoga pants and spreader of Ayn Rand principles has finally  managed to creep out its even its own loyal customers.

The company manifesto, posted on Lululemon's website, says:

Children are the orgasm of life. Just as you did not know what an orgasm was before you had one, nature does not let you know how great children are until you actually have them.

The awkward declaration has drawn ire from customers on forums and mommy blogs.

Bloggers at theproudparents.com posted a picture of a tote bag with the saying and complained it was "creepy."

The hairpin.com counted it among the least inspiring of Lululemon's sayings.

And responses on a Reddit thread ranged from "weirdos" to "WTF???"

Considering its smart business strategy and widespread success, Lululemon still goes through periods of tone-deafness. The chain is proof that good product can trump even the most misguided marketing.

Here's an image taken from the manifesto, below:

lululemon manifesto

SEE ALSO: 2 Utterly Bizarre Facts About The Rise Of Lululemon, The Cult-Like Yoga Brand

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YOGA BUBBLE OVER: Lululemon Collapses After Weak Outlook

Here Are The Six Stocks Making Big Moves Today (GT, BTU, RF, LULU, PLL, JNPR)

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lululemon yoga

The Dow is up nearly 100 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up above 0.32 percent.

A big Best Buy announcement this morning caused its stock to sell-off, but in general equities are doing quite well today, specifically the energy sector.

Here are today's winners and losers.

Winners:

Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT): Up 4.0 percent  Goodyear acquired 100 percent ownership of its Japanese unit Nippon Giant Tire.

Peabody Energy (BTU): Up 2.3 percent  Peabody is following the energy sector's rally higher, possibly on news that Chinese approval for a $23 billion steel project could boost prices. Peabody sells coal for steel operations in Asian markets.

Regions Financial (RF): Up 2.3 percent  In a report from StockCall, Regions Financial was seen as a safe investment compared to bigger banks, driven by its regional focus.

Losers:

Lululemon (BBY) Down 8.7 percent — The yoga apparel retailer said it expects slower sales this quarter and cut guidance, sending shares lower.

Pall (PLL) Down 4.3 percent — Pall said core earnings fell on higher expenses and relatively flat revenue.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) Down 3.0 percent — Juniper was cut to hold by Needham on competitive issues.

SEE ALSO: Here Are The 10 Cheapest Stocks In The World According To Wall Street Analysts >

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Don't Expect To Get A Workout At Lululemon's Free Yoga Course

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I've always been curious about Lululemon's free yoga events. Considering they've convinced women to shell out $98 for yoga pants, they've clearly found a way to strike a chord.

I went to the retailer's free yoga course at NYC's Bryant Park Thursday night. When I arrived, they had roped off the entire green space and filled them with mats:

yoga mats

The yoga instructor told me the typical crowd on Thursday nights is 600 people! The crowd was mostly women, with a few disgruntled boyfriends thrown in. There were also some spectators, mostly men, some of whom creepily took pictures of us:

spectators men park

Of course, the mats included the Lululemon logo, the only mention of the company that I saw. Some people brought their own mats but weren't allowed to use them.

lululemon yoga mat

A yoga instructor stood at the front and yelled out different poses over a loudspeaker, while other instructors walked around and corrected people. But no one really knew what they were doing, especially me. At one point, I fell over and some of the instructors who were just sitting at the front laughed at me.

people doing yoga park

At the end, the instructor told us we had exercised our bodies and let go of our negative energy. But all I had done was stand on one leg and tried not to hit the person one foot away from me. People became lazy and started to fall asleep on their mats, causing the teacher to yell at them.

If you're considering going to yoga, it's probably worth shelling out $20 for a class more intimate than 600 people.

DON'T MISS: Lululemon's CHILD/ORGASM Ad Is Creeping Everyone Out >

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Gap Is Slowly Becoming Lululemon's Biggest Threat (LULU, GPS)

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Lululemon has grown into a yoga juggernaut, but there are others that want in on the action.

Its biggest threat is emerging in the form of Gap's Athleta brand, reports Sapna Maheshwari at Bloomberg.

It's not just the market share Gap wants — it's the type of customers. Lululemon boasts some of the most intensely devoted customers in apparel. They're willing to pay lofty prices and always come back for more.

So, it's copying Lululemon in an attempt to snag customers.

Bloomberg elaborates:

"Like Lululemon, Athleta is hooking up with local yoga instructors and sponsoring classes such as Mommy & Me Yoga. Like Lululemon, Athleta trains staff to make garment recommendations tailored to customers’ pursuits -- a half-marathon, say, or paddle boarding. Gap’s yoga upstart is making inroads. Exhibit A: Lululemon “brand ambassadors” are buying Athleta clothes."

There's one big key to Gap's strategy, though. Lululemon is very expensive, and Gap has the muscle to undercut its prices significantly.

Also, Gap is basically stalking Lululemon stores now, according to Bloomberg. Every time Lululemon opens a retail location in a mall, Gap opens an Athleta store in the same mall. Toby Lenk, who heads up Gap's online operations, said that this was a coincidence.

Right now, Gap's yoga business (Athleta and Piperlime) is still about a third of the size of Lululemon, but Gap CEO Glenn Murphy noted last month that “the stores are doing very well so far.”

This should get interesting.

NOW SEE: 9 Trends That Are Transforming The Retail World >

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Why The Whole Fashion Industry Is Watching Lululemon's Lawsuit Against Calvin Klein

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astro pants lululemon

Lululemon is accustomed to copycats. The popular activewear sensation has seen imitators from Gap's Athleta and Nordstrom's Zella brands.

But they never took legal action — until now.

The outcome of this lawsuit has big implications for the entire fashion industry. 

Lululemon announced last months its suing Calvin Klein for allegedly copying its "Astro" yoga pants. The yoga retail alleged that Calvin Klein violated patents of the unusual waistband and design of the pants. 

Calvin Klein took down the pants immediately after the lawsuit was announced, leading legal experts to speculate that the brand was considering settling the suit. 

Patent lawsuits are difficult to win in apparel, and the results of the Lululemon lawsuit could set precedents for copycats everywhere, Allison Martell at Reuters reported:  

"What Lululemon is doing here is staking its turf," said Jeremy de Beer, an intellectual property expert and law professor at the University of Ottawa.

"The business strategy is to deter other people from even trying to copy designs, because it's going to cause them legal problems," he said.

So far, fighting copycats in fashion has been futile. Lululemon's case will send a strong message to the retail industry about creative property. 

DON'T MISS: A Brutal Dispute Between Two Luxury Heavyweights Just Got Even Uglier >

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Yoga Pants Maker Lululemon Beats Earnings And Boosts Guidance (LULU)

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girl yoga grateful thank you happy

Lululemon Athletica just announced quarterly earnings that came well ahead of expectations.

EPS excluding one-time items came in at $0.34, which was well ahead of expectations of $0.31.

Click Here For LIVE Updates >

Net revenue increased by 33 percent to $282.6 million driven by 15 percent surge in comparable store sales.

“We continue to strive for the right balance between strong growth and maintaining our market leader focus on execution, innovation and investments in infrastructure and while doing so delivered another strong quarter," said CEO Christine Day.

Manage expects full year sales of $1.345 billion to $1.360 billion and EPS of $1.76 o $1.81.

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Lululemon Just Proved It Isn't Fazed By All The Competition

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lululemon

Women haven't abandoned Lululemon for cheaper copycats just yet. 

Lululemon just posted second-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates and sales are up 15 percent from this time last year. 

The good news comes at a tough time for Lululemon. Shares are down and the retailer is facing more competition than ever before. 

Gap's Athleta is seen as Lululemon's biggest threat. The activewear retailer is even going as far as to open stores in close proximity to Lululemon. Because Athleta's stuff is cheaper, analysts speculated that women might abandon their beloved $98 yoga pants. 

Nordstrom also got in on the yoga-wear trend, poaching Lululemon designers to curate its Zella line. And Lululemon is currently suing Calvin Klein for allegedly violating a patent they had on a certain pair of yoga pants. 

The brand is continuing to innovate its clothing and stay one step ahead of competitors, CEO Christine Day said this morning in an earnings conference call. 

Today's results prove that Lululemon is more than capable of excelling under pressure. It looks like the activewear retailer is here to stay. 

DON'T MISS: Celebrity Designer Max Azria Tells Us How Fashion Houses Are Coping With The Bad Economy >

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How Lululemon Keeps Women Coming Back For More

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lululemon yoga class

Lululemon can't be knocked down. 

In the past year, the retailer has endured falling share prices, accusations that it's a cult, an employee murder trial, and mounting competition from Gap's Athleta brand. 

Yet Lululemon proved it was resilient at earnings today, reporting sales that were up 15 percent from a year earlier. 

So how did they do it? 

Lululemon goes to great lengths to make sure their clothing actually fits, Carolyn Beauchesne — known online as the Lululemon Addict — tells us. Her blog reviews new products from the brand and gets 50,000 unique visitors per month. 

Beauchesne has measured Lululemon's clothing and says it's more forgiving in the waist and hips than its competitors. This means that women actually feel great wearing the pants. 

In addition to the fit, Lululemon has a tricky strategy for merchandise, Beauchesne says. The brand frequently releases new colors and patterns, then retires them for years when they sell out. 

"It drives people crazy because they want that color and don't want to miss out on the new release," explains Beauchesne. "It's a big incentive for people to get to the stores." 

Finally, Lululemon offers free repairs on merchandise, so women aren't as afraid to spend big on workout clothes. 

Regardless of how you feel about Lululemon, their strategy is clearly a smart one. 

DON'T MISS: Suddenly It Makes Sense For The Fashion Industry To Make Clothes In The US>

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Lululemon CEO Explains One Way The Brand Pushed Things Too Far

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lululemon paris pink

Lululemon announced its Q2 earnings today and it came well ahead of expectations, but things haven't been totally perfect for the company lately.

Oppenheimer analyst Pamela Quintiliano brought up a quality problem that popped up earlier this year.

What happened?

Lululemon tried to push the "color limit" too far. That is, one of its bright neon colors — Paris Pink — had a problem with bleeding. At the time, it sparked quite the controversy among Lululemon customers.

Here's what CEO Christine Day had to say about it on the company's Q2 earnings call:

"Primarily for us it was the bright neons which are very difficult to put on fabric and we pushed the color limit pretty intently. So, we did have bleeding with Paris Pink and a couple of small isolated issues which were very hard pressed to track down in a couple of other colors that were also bright neons that came in the second quarter.

So, because we want to strategically continue to push the envelope with bright colors, we did bring in a color expert who has done an amazing and we've learned a lot of great new tricks from him. So, we're actually very excited about even new capabilities.

So, the silver lining in having an issue with Paris Pink was that it created actually more opportunity for us and so by changing some simple rinse agents and a couple of others things that we've worked on with the manufacturers in the mills, we feel very comfortable now with the product and being able to do our strategic intent, which is push colors and maintain quality."

Day said that it was "not a material event from a pure financial perspective," but it did give Lululemon a chance to work on how it communicates with its customers. The customer base was truly worried about what was going on — especially regarding health concerns.

NOW SEE: 12 Utterly Bizarre Facts About The Rise Of Lululemon >

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